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What Changed This Week
Data loading -- analysis will populate when market data arrives.
What to Watch
Data loading -- watchlist will populate when market data arrives.
Top Movers
Scenario Analysis · 2028 Outlook
Republican Sweep
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Divided Government BASE CASE
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Democratic Sweep
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Balance of Power
Presidential Race
Senate
House
Democrat
Toss-up
Republican
Tipping Point Races
Senate Races That Decide Control
2026 Midterm Analysis
Presidency
Senate
House
Governors
Senate Seat Flips
Markets projecting party change from 2024 incumbent. Net shift determines majority.
Battleground Dashboard
All competitive races (<25pp margin) across Senate, House, and Governor, ranked by closeness.
Primary Watch
Primary Competitive Index
Active primaries ranked by competitiveness. Spread between frontrunner and runner-up. Tighter spreads = more contested races worth monitoring.
News Sentiment Intelligence
Media Coverage Sentiment
7-day news tone analysis across 2B+ articles. Detects narrative shifts before markets reprice.
Narrative Shift Alerts
Significant sentiment changes detected in the last 7 days. Magnitude >1.0 = tradeable signal.
Polling Intelligence
Polling Averages
Weighted polling averages (sample size × recency × LV/RV). Data: VoteHub API (1h cache).
Poll-to-Market Divergence
When polling averages diverge from prediction market prices. Polls shift first, markets lag.
Economic Indicators
Macro Fundamentals · FRED
Key economic indicators that drive election outcomes. Consumer sentiment, unemployment, and inflation historically predict incumbent party performance. Data: Federal Reserve (FRED API, 6h cache).
Campaign Finance Intelligence
Money vs. Odds · FEC Fundraising Divergence
States where campaign cash-on-hand share diverges from prediction market odds by >10pp. Data: FEC OpenFEC API (quarterly filings, 6h cache).
Super PAC Spending Surges · FEC Independent Expenditures
Large single IE filings (24/48-hour notices). "Smart money just dropped $X on this race" alerts. Data: FEC Schedule E API.
IE Money Flow by Chamber
FEC independent expenditure spending (30d). Pro-D vs Pro-R super PAC money by chamber.
Cross-Chamber Correlation
States with both Senate and Governor races. Do they lean the same way? Splits = ticket-split risk.
Trend Intelligence
Control Probability Trend
Daily chamber control probabilities over time. Requires 2+ days of snapshot data.
Collecting data. Trends populate after 2+ daily snapshots.
Momentum · Fastest Moving Races
3-day and 7-day price velocity for Senate races.
Volume Surges & Volatility
Races heating up (volume spike) or unstable (high price variance).
Where the Money Is
Most-traded competitive markets (leading outcome < 75%). Volume = total dollars traded.
Smart Money Tracker
Top Polymarket holders on key election markets. Whale concentration > 30% = thin market. Cross-referenced with FEC campaign finance.
Whale Activity Tracker
7-day accumulation/dumping patterns. Detects when major holders are building or exiting positions.
Race Ratings & Calendar
Structural data: toss-up races, upcoming filing deadlines, and primary dates.
Candidate Attention Tracker
Wikipedia pageviews vs 30-day average. Attention spikes precede polling shifts by 2-5 days. Sorted by z-score.
Presidency
Markets favor Republicans to win the White House, with a moderate confidence margin. Watch for shifting sentiment as primary season progresses.
Senate
Democrats hold a slim edge in Senate control markets. Several competitive races remain within margin of error, making this the most volatile chamber.
House Guidance
House control markets lean strongly Democratic. The current probability spread suggests divided government is the base-case scenario for 2028.
Control Probabilities
Presidency R
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Presidency D
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Senate D
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House D
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Composite
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Markets Tracked
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Total Volume
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Polymarket
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Kalshi
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Competitive (<60%)
Signal Dimensions
Strong (50+)
Moderate (20-49)
Weak (<20)
Operative Intelligence
Cross-Platform Spreads
Ticket-Split Signals
Competitive Race Clustering
Chamber Control Math
High-Conviction Bets
Markets with significant volume where the leading outcome trades near 50% — maximum uncertainty with real money at stake.
Multi-Platform Intelligence
PredictIt Cross-Platform Spreads
Price divergences between PredictIt (fee-adjusted) and Polymarket/Kalshi. Larger spreads = potential arbitrage.
Manifold Markets Divergence
Play-money market divergences from real-money platforms. Smart crowd vs money signal.
Google Trends — Trending Now
Real-time Google trending topics matching election candidates or keywords. Trending = massive public attention event.
Policy Pulse
SCOTUS Tracker
Supreme Court cases, retirements, and constitutional challenges across prediction markets.
Congress Watch
Impeachment, legislation, government shutdowns, and speaker races.
Trade & Tariff Monitor
Tariff revenue, trade deals, import restrictions, and trade deficit markets.
Foreign Policy
Ukraine, Israel, Iran, NATO, and international conflict/diplomacy markets.
Domestic Policy
Immigration, abortion, climate, TikTok, big tech regulation, and social policy markets.
Macro & Economic
Fed rates, CPI/inflation, GDP, unemployment, debt ceiling, and fiscal policy markets.
Cross-Platform Arb
Policy markets where Polymarket and Kalshi disagree by 3+ percentage points.
CLARITY Act & Prediction Market Regulation
Market Consensus
What prediction markets say about crypto regulation passage — synthesized from Kalshi's KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE series and Polymarket event contract markets.
Legislative Tracker
Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (H.R. 3633) — crypto market structure bill expanding CFTC jurisdiction. Passed House 294-134 (Jul 2025), stalled in Senate over stablecoin yield provisions.
Regulatory & Legal Landscape
Three parallel tracks shaping prediction market legality: CLARITY Act legislation, CFTC event contract rulemaking, and CFTC vs. States litigation.
Related Prediction Markets
Live markets on crypto regulation, event contracts, CFTC authority, and digital asset legislation across Polymarket and Kalshi.
Crypto Industry Money · CLARITY Act
Who's paying for the fight. Super PAC money from FEC Schedule E filings (Fairshake network and crypto-industry PACs, 2026 cycle).
Lobbying money from Senate LDA filings where the client lobbied on H.R. 3633, FIT21, or digital asset market structure (2025).
Two separate datasets — super PAC spend targets candidates; LDA spend targets the bill itself.
Election Markets
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