🌡️ Weather Ensemble
Phase 3: Late Entry + Calibrated
11 Sources
31 Cities
Bias Corrected
Paper trading performance & forecast accuracy — auto-refreshes every 60s
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← Portfolio
Analysis
📈 Trading
🎯 Forecast Accuracy
📐 Calibration
🔬 Ensemble Health
$0
Total P&L
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Win Rate
0
Open Positions
$10,000
Bankroll
⚙️ Active Config
Stop-Loss:
30%
Min Bet:
$500
Min Edge:
20%
Entry Window:
3-24h
Daily Cap:
-$2,000
Scan:
30 min
Min Sources:
2
Calibration:
Isotonic (883 brackets)
📈 Equity Curve
🏙️ P&L by City
📡 Open Positions
📊 Performance by Segment
No resolved trades yet
💰 Win Rate by Entry Price
No resolved trades yet
🕐 Recent Trades
No resolved trades yet — positions will appear here when they close
🎯 Forecast Accuracy — MAE by City
Open-Meteo historical forecasts vs TWC actuals. 40 dates per city. Lower = better forecasting = bigger edge.
📋 City Calibration Detail
🗺️ City Tiers
📐 Empirical RMSE by City × Horizon
RMSE captures both bias and variance. Used in
prob_in_range()
for probability calculation. Higher RMSE = wider uncertainty = fewer trades.
📊 Bias by City
Systematic forecast error. Positive = forecast too low (actual hotter). Negative = forecast too high (actual colder). Corrected in real-time.
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Active Sources
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Avg Sources/Signal
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Cached Forecasts
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Degraded / Offline
📡 Source Status
Loading ensemble status...
📊 Source Distribution
How many sources contribute per cached signal
No cached forecasts yet
🗺️ City × Source Coverage
Green = source contributing for this city
No cached forecasts yet